WhatIsMidpointMethod?
A calculation technique for MHB progressives that estimates the breakeven point by finding the statistical midpoint between the current counter value and the ceiling. Assumes uniform trigger distribution — in practice, some games may be biased toward triggering near the ceiling.
Why this matters for advantage play
The midpoint method is a quick-and-dirty heuristic that gets you a usable answer in seconds during a floor walk. It's not precise enough for marginal calls, but for go/no-go triage on dozens of machines per hour, it's the right level of effort.
MHB Strategy GuideRelated terms
MHB (Must-Hit-By)
A progressive jackpot forced to trigger before reaching a specified ceiling value. MHB progressives are the most mathematically analyzable form of advantage play because the ceiling creates a known upper bound for expected cost calculations.
Ceiling
The maximum value a must-hit-by progressive can reach before it is forced to pay out. The closer a progressive gets to its ceiling, the higher the expected value of playing that machine.
Floor
The starting or reset value of a progressive jackpot — the lowest point it returns to after a jackpot hit. The distance between the floor and the current counter value indicates how much has been contributed by players since the last hit.
EV (Expected Value)
The mathematical average outcome of a bet calculated over infinite repetitions. Positive expected value means the play is profitable long-term; negative expected value means the house has the edge. AP players only take plays where the math is in their favor.
Threshold
The specific counter value at which a machine transitions from house-favored to player-favorable. Run the Slots calculates trigger thresholds for every supported machine based on base game return, counter rates, and bonus values.
Machines that use this
Proven Must-Hit-By machines on Run the Slots. Tap any title for the full advantage play guide.
88 Fortunes Emperor’s Coins
Ascending Fortunes
Buffalo Link
Play at 1,600+ on the counter
Coyote Moon Deluxe
Fire Wolf 2
Forest Dragons
Jewel Collection: Dragon
Jewel Collection: Vault
Legend of the 3x 2x Phoenix
Lucky Larry's Lobstermania Deluxe
Magic Wishes
Money Storm Deluxe
Common questions about midpoint method
When the trigger distribution is biased. Some MHB games trigger disproportionately near the ceiling, which makes the simple midpoint a worse estimator than a more sophisticated calculation.
No. Use it for triage during a floor walk; use proper EV math (or our calculators) before committing to a session.
Incorporate the game's specific trigger-distribution shape, base game return, and counter rate. Our MHB calculator does this for the games we cover.
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