Is it a play?

A must-hit-by progressive slot machine has a jackpot that is forced to pay out before the counter reaches a published ceiling value. Because the jackpot must pay by that ceiling, you can calculate the expected value of a play based on the current counter reading and the must-hit-by ceiling.

You only need two numbers off the screen: the current counter value (what the jackpot reads right now) and the must-hit-by ceiling (the value it must pay by). Picking a machine fills the ceiling and its real rate for you; both can be fine-tuned optionally if you know the exact figures.

MHB progressives trigger at a random point between a hidden minimum and the published ceiling. The midpoint method assumes a uniform distribution, estimating the average trigger at the halfway point of the remaining range. This is a conservative baseline — some implementations weight toward the ceiling, making the actual expected hit point slightly higher.

PLAY means the expected value is meaningfully positive — the counter is high enough that the math favors sitting down. SKIP means the counter is too low relative to the ceiling to justify the expected coin-in. BORDERLINE means the play is close to breakeven and factors like your bankroll, time, and variance tolerance should guide the decision.

Yes. The must-hit-by calculator is free for all visitors on Run the Slots. No account or subscription is required to use it.