WhatIsCeiling?
The maximum value a must-hit-by progressive can reach before it is forced to pay out. The closer a progressive gets to its ceiling, the higher the expected value of playing that machine.
Why this matters for advantage play
The ceiling is the hard cap that powers must-hit-by advantage play. Without a ceiling, you can never bound your expected cost — but with one, you can compute the worst-case spend to lock in the jackpot. Ceilings are what turn slot progressives from gambling into solvable AP problems.
MHB Progressives ExplainedRelated terms
MHB (Must-Hit-By)
A progressive jackpot forced to trigger before reaching a specified ceiling value. MHB progressives are the most mathematically analyzable form of advantage play because the ceiling creates a known upper bound for expected cost calculations.
Floor
The starting or reset value of a progressive jackpot — the lowest point it returns to after a jackpot hit. The distance between the floor and the current counter value indicates how much has been contributed by players since the last hit.
Midpoint Method
A calculation technique for MHB progressives that estimates the breakeven point by finding the statistical midpoint between the current counter value and the ceiling. Assumes uniform trigger distribution — in practice, some games may be biased toward triggering near the ceiling.
Threshold
The specific counter value at which a machine transitions from house-favored to player-favorable. Run the Slots calculates trigger thresholds for every supported machine based on base game return, counter rates, and bonus values.
Trigger
The specific condition that activates a bonus feature or progressive payout. In AP context, the trigger point is the threshold where playing the machine becomes mathematically profitable.
Machines that use this
Proven Must-Hit-By machines on Run the Slots. Tap any title for the full advantage play guide.
88 Fortunes Emperor’s Coins
Ascending Fortunes
Buffalo Link
Play at 1,600+ on the counter
Coyote Moon Deluxe
Fire Wolf 2
Forest Dragons
Jewel Collection: Dragon
Jewel Collection: Vault
Legend of the 3x 2x Phoenix
Lucky Larry's Lobstermania Deluxe
Magic Wishes
Money Storm Deluxe
Common questions about ceiling
On most must-hit-by games it appears in fine print on the belly panel or in a help screen, often as 'Must hit by $X' or 'Awarded by $X'. Some manufacturers display only the floor and require you to consult a published par sheet.
The jackpot is forced to pay out before any spin pushes the counter higher. In practice, the trigger almost always fires within a few cents of the ceiling on the spin that would have crossed it.
No. Standard progressives have no upper bound and can grow indefinitely. Only the must-hit-by subset (sometimes called 'mystery' progressives) have a hard ceiling.
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