Must-hit-by slot machine calculator

A must-hit-by progressive slot machine has a jackpot that must pay before its published ceiling. The current value and ceiling show the remaining meter gap. Estimating the return also needs the meter rate and assumptions about base-game payback and the trigger point; those two screen readings alone do not establish an advantage.

Three. Two come off the screen — the current counter value and the must-hit-by ceiling. The third is the counter rate: how many dollars of coin-in move the meter one cent. The rate is not printed on the machine and no guide in this catalog carries one, so you take it off the meter yourself — note the counter, wager a known amount, note it again, then divide dollars wagered by cents climbed. It is not an optional detail: the same counter reading can be a clear play at one meter speed and a four-figure expected loss at another. Base game payback is a fourth input, defaulted to 85% and labelled as an assumption.

MHB progressives trigger at a random point between a hidden minimum and the published ceiling. The midpoint method assumes a uniform distribution and estimates the hit at the halfway point of the remaining range. That is the OPTIMISTIC of the two settings, not the cautious one: a shorter assumed chase means less coin-in, less cost, and a higher expected value. Turn it off and the calculator assumes the machine runs all the way to the ceiling — the longest chase and the lowest expected value, which is the genuinely conservative reading. Some implementations weight toward the ceiling, so the real hit point can sit past the midpoint; when it does, the midpoint figure overstates your edge.

PLAY means the expected value is positive — the counter is high enough that the math favors sitting down. SKIP means the counter is too low relative to the ceiling to justify the expected coin-in. BORDERLINE is not a milder kind of play: the expected value there is at or below breakeven, just within a small percentage of coin-in of it. Because that band is a share of coin-in, it widens as the chase gets longer, so BORDERLINE on a large coin-in can still carry a four-figure expected loss. Read the dollar figure printed with the verdict, not the word.

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