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For advantage players: the probability your bankroll hits $0 before your edge plays out, using the standard diffusion (Brownian-motion) risk-of-ruin model. Only meaningful when you actually have a positive edge.
Bankroll
Total money you're willing to risk before walking
Bet Size
What you wager per spin (fixed)
Player Edge
Your advantage as a % of each bet (e.g. 2 = +2%)
Volatility Index
Per-spin standard deviation as a multiple of bet (slots ~8–15)
About This Model
This assumes a fixed bet, a known positive edge, and ignores jackpot-skew. Slot variance is high — the standard deviation of a single spin is often 8 to 15 times the bet — which makes the required bankroll large. On jackpot and progressive games, where variance is dominated by rare huge hits, the continuous diffusion model slightly understates the real risk of ruin.
Risk of Ruin
72.61%
Undercapitalized — variance is likely to bust this bankroll first.
Too small for this bet and volatility — grow the bankroll first.
Bankroll for 5% RoR
$18,723.33
Bankroll that holds risk of ruin to 5%.
Bankroll for 1% RoR
$28,782.31
Bankroll that holds risk of ruin to 1%.
Edge / Spin
$0.05
Expected profit per spin (edge % × bet).
Std Dev / Spin
$25.00
Per-spin standard deviation (volatility × bet).
Inputs
Total money you're willing to risk before walking.
What you'll wager per spin (fixed).
Your advantage as a % of each bet (e.g. 2 = +2%).
Per-spin standard deviation as a multiple of bet. Slots ~8–15.
Risk of ruin is the probability your bankroll hits $0 before a positive edge has time to play out. It uses the standard diffusion (Brownian-motion) model: exp(−2 · edge · bankroll ÷ variance). It is only meaningful when you actually have a positive edge — with zero or negative edge, ruin over an infinite horizon is certain (100%).
This assumes a fixed bet, a known positive edge, and ignores jackpot-skew. Slot variance is high (standard deviation of 8–15× the bet), which makes the required bankroll large — and on jackpot/progressive games this model slightly understates the real risk.